NFL Network’s analytics expert predicts a total win for the 2024 Indianapolis Colts

The 2024 season is exciting for many reasons when it comes to the Indianapolis Colts, but… NFL Network predicts Indy will miss the playoffs once again.

The Colts made one of the toasts of the AFC season in 2023, making a surprise comeback in the second half of the year to salvage a .500 record in a very difficult year in the conference and despite losing their starting quarterback Anthony Richardson. Speaking of which, the rising second-year QB is another reason to be excited after his limited appearance in year one.

But when it comes to math, the numbers don’t love these Colts rookies. NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund broke down each NFL team’s expected win total and had the Colts in Vegas over/under 8.5 with just 7.9 wins.

Although Frelund admits the ceiling is much higher, writing: “Back Anthony Richardsonas well as some great new items (AD Mitchell, Laiatu Latu), creates a lot of advantages for this young team.

However, while the Colts were on a four-game winning streak midway through last season, that’s hard for Frelund to imagine given their difficult midseason situation.

“The hardest four-game stretch for the Colts comes in the middle of the season (Dolphins, Texans, Vikings, Bills), followed by a trip to the Jets and a home game against the Lions,” he says.

If Indianapolis can survive or thrive during this stretch, it could creep into playoff contention down the road, according to Frelund, who says the end of the schedule is manageable.

“Good news: My models favored Indy in each of the last four games of the campaign (Broncos, Titans, Giants and Jaguars).”

The AFC South certainly hasn’t been the strongest league in recent years, but considering Houston’s growing numbers and Jacksonville’s recent playoff contention, it’s a league that won’t crown an average squad this season.

Frelund sees just seven point nine tenths of wins for the Indianapolis Colts, not eight, and definitely not enough to make the AFC postseason. The number is also the fifth lowest of the 32 NFL teams included in its win total projections.