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Tue. Jun 25th, 2024

NFL analytics experts’ drafts combine to win the Baltimore Ravens in the 2024 season

By meerna Jun12,2024

For most of last season, the Ravens were the best team in the AFC, if not the NFL. But on a cold January day, the Chiefs won the conference title with a home win.

The 17-10 loss to the Chiefs probably still stings, even in June. Lamar Jackson he returned and the Ravens gave him an escape Derrick Henry in free agency. You can imagine that Baltimore will have an even tougher running game. Additionally, the defense has factored in some draft and free agency needs.

So what, record-wise, can the team expect this season?

Cynthia Frelund, an analytics expert for NFL Network, projects Baltimore to win 10.2 and finish second in the AFC North. Frelund predicts the total wins for all 32 league teams. She wrote that she based the prediction formula on a combination of statistics, history and trends.

“Using the projected 53-man rosters for May 14, I ran 150,000 simulations for all 272 regular-season games,” she wrote.

She also noted: “Please remember that these simulations include many contextual data points that have been proven to correlate with wins and losses based on actual historical football matches played.”

Nate Wiggins Ravens
The Ravens selected linebacker Nate Wiggins, a former Clemson star, in the first round of April’s NFL Draft. (Ken Ruinard – USA TODAY Sports)

Baltimore Ravens odds and predictions for 2024

  • Win total: below 11.0 (-115)
  • Make Playoffs: -320
  • Victory Division: +125
  • Win the conference: +480
  • Win the Super Bowl: +900

Here’s how Frelund rates the Ravens:

“The Ravens’ schedule puts them below the Bengals in median projected wins and makes them a more likely wild-card team than the division winner. Let me repeat: (based on May statistics), so let’s all take a deep breath.

“The AFC North is currently considered the toughest division in the NFL, which isn’t shocking, but it does create a lot of potential internal disruption among these four teams. Just for fun, I calculated which game on Baltimore’s schedule would be the most important, and currently“It appears that the outcome of the Ravens-Eagles game in Week 13, just before Baltimore’s bye, will most likely decide the Ravens’ playoff fate.”

The Ravens offense may look different this fall with Henry around. Consider that Henry’s presence could make Jackson an even more valuable running back. During Jackson’s time in Baltimore, the Ravens haven’t allowed an offense of over 3,000 yards since 2019. The defense will have to focus even more on Henry and even more dynamic passes.

Meanwhile, the Ravens focused on their own defense in free agency. The most important transfer was keeping the attack defensive Justin Madubuike. The former Texas A&M standout collected 13 sacks last fall. This is the most in terms of the number of players who have made inside passes in the NFL.

Speaking of defense, the Ravens lost a coordinator when Mike Macdonald took over as head coach in Seattle. Baltimore advances Zach Orr, who, at 31, is the second-youngest coordinator in the league. Defense is personal to Orr. After all, he started as a linebacker for the Ravens. Now he’s the boss.

Derrick Henry
The Ravens signed running back Derrick Henry in free agency. (Steve Roberts – USA TODAY Sports)

If you’re curious, Frelund and her formula believe the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs will win 10.9 games. This outperforms AFC. Then it’s the Bengals with a healthy one Joe Burrow, with 10.5. Texans in her projections. will finish third with 10.3 wins.

Frelund’s formula combines dolphins and ravens. The Bills are sixth with 10 wins, followed by the Jets with 9.6. Here are the seven playoff teams based on the Frelund formula. Two of the four projected playoff teams are from the AFC North – Cincinnati and Baltimore.

You can check out all of Frelund’s predictions here. To see all of NFL On3.com’s coverage, click here.

By meerna

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