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Sat. Jun 15th, 2024

How bad were the Denver Broncos in the red zone and with a goal to score?

By meerna Jun11,2024

After last week’s Tim’s Horse Tracks race, I wanted to dig deeper into the data that Warren Sharp showed from 2023. In 2023, the Denver Broncos were poor in scoring opportunities and were terrible in the second half when it came to three-outs. half. I wanted to focus on read zone touchdown percentage and TD percentage.

TD percentage in Red Zone

Over the past six seasons, the Broncos have ranked 27th in red zone touchdown percentage, scoring no better than 56.8% (that’s 2018). The highest mark over the entire six-season block was the Packers in 2020, who scored TDs on 80 percent of their red zone TD drives. The Broncos’ worst result was recorded in 2019 and was 47.6%. This season, the Broncos have scored TDs on 20 of 42 drives that have reached the red zone. By comparison, the Titans led the league this season in scoring a TD on 75.6% of their TD attacks. (34 of 45).

Broncos league rankings by season:

  • 2018 – 19
  • 2019 – 28
  • 2020 – 27
  • 2021 – 22
  • 2022 – 16
  • 2023 – 19

Oddly enough, the Broncos’ best season in terms of red zone TD efficiency was 2022, when the offense was overall terrible. This is a situation where statistics do not tell the whole truth, at least in percentage terms. Although the Broncos were 16th in RZTD%, they were last in the league in red zone wins, allowing just 36 points in 17 games. So while RZTD% was in the middle of the pack, Chiefs literally were twice as many runs in the red zone (72) and scored TDs in 50 of them. So KC had more red zone tank destroyers than the Broncos red zone DRIVES in 2022

It’s worth taking a look at the number of RZ runs on the season for the Broncos:

  • 2018 – 44
  • 2019 – 42
  • 2020 – 45
  • 2021 – 53
  • 2022 – 36
  • 2023 – 58

While the Broncos didn’t get TDs on many of them in 2023, they had the highest total number of RZ drives last season. The year-on-year improvement from 36 to 58 is huge. This could be credited to Sean Payton, but it wasn’t very noticeable due to the Broncos’ futility in goal-to-goal (GtG) games last season.

Playing from goal to goal

Warren Sharp took a look at TD percentage on field goals drivesbut I have chosen to look at TD’s success on a goal-to-goal basis. game. Both can be informative, but since I already did one, I decided to use stathead.com and take a look at the other.

Overall, the Broncos were on average better in TD percentage (the play, not the drive), ranking 22nd at 28.9% over the six-year period than they were in the RZTD%. The Jaguars were the worst with a score of 25.9% and the Titans were the best with a score of 63.3%. The Saints were good at this from 2018-2021 under Sean Payton. Overall, they ranked sixth and were in the green in 2020 (72.1%) and 2018 (69.6%). That’s why it must have been very frustrating for Sean Payton to watch the 2023 Broncos only score points in 18.3% of their goal-to-net games. Only the Jets were worse in 2023, at 17.5%.

The Broncos played 82 games from goal (excluding penalties) and scored a TD in only 15 of them. Twelve of these plays were FG attempts. In comparison, the Packers only ran 46 GtG plays and scored TDs on 19 of them (41.3%), while the 49ers scored TDs on 29 of 71 GtG plays (40.8%).

The Broncos’ best season in terms of %GtG TD was 2020, when the team scored in 15 of 44 GtG games. The 44 GtG team was near the bottom of the league, but while the Broncos didn’t appear in GtG much in 2020, they shot decently when they did (36.4%). The Packers were the best this season at 46.9%, while the Texans were the worst at 23.2%.

The 2023 Broncos “led” the league with twelve FGs in GtG competition. No other team had more than eight. The Packers had 19 TDs and only 1 FG, while the Bills had 27 and 2.

Tm Plays 1.% DOWN% TD FG 1.D Inside Fmb Sk Pass Haste FG Run %
GNB 46 41.3% 0.0% 19 1 19 0 0 0 18 27 1 58.7%
SFO 71 40.8% 2.8% 29 2 29 2 0 1 23 46 2 64.8%
C.L.E 54 35.2% 0.0% 19 4 19 0 0 1 26 24 4 44.4%
ARI 58 34.5% 0.0% 20 4 20 0 0 1 22 31 4 53.4%
NWE 29 34.5% 0.0% 10 2 10 0 0 0 12 15 2 51.7%
CHI 64 34.4% 0.0% 22 5 22 0 0 2 27 32 5 50.0%
CAN 85 34.1% 0.0% 26 5 29 0 0 3 49 31 5 36.5%
BUFF 80 33.8% 1.3% 27 2 27 1 0 0 26 50 3 62.5%
CIN 74 33.8% 1.4% 25 4 25 0 1 2 32 38 4 51.4%
BALL 87 32.2% 1.1% 27 6 28 1 0 1 28 52 6 59.8%
WAS 60 31.7% 1.7% 19 2 19 1 0 1 34 24 2 40.0%
OR 68 30.9% 0.0% 20 5 21 0 0 0 25 38 5 55.9%
NYG 46 30.4% 4.3% 13 3 14 1 1 4 23 20 3 43.5%
FI 83 30.1% 2.4% 25 7 25 0 2 3 18 58 7 69.9%
JAX 60 30.0% 3.3% 18 2 18 1 1 1 29 28 2 46.7%
DEFINE 88 29.5% 1.1% 26 3 26 0 1 0 31 53 4 60.2%
OVER THERE 61 29.5% 0.0% 18 7 18 0 0 4 32 21 7 34.4%
GIBBON 92 29.3% 0.0% 27 6 27 0 0 2 44 42 6 45.7%
HOU 73 28.8% 0.0% 21 7 21 0 0 2 thirty 36 7 49.3%
MIA 101 28.7% 3.0% 29 6 29 1 2 3 44 51 6 50.5%
HOLE 56 28.6% 0.0% 16 6 16 0 0 0 16 34 6 60.7%
SEA 71 26.8% 1.4% 18 7 19 1 0 4 27 37 7 52.1%
INDIUM 68 25.0% 2.9% 17 5 17 1 1 3 27 36 5 52.9%
GAVE 101 24.8% 4.0% 25 8 25 2 2 4 50 42 8 41.6%
L.V.R 62 24.2% 3.2% 15 6 15 2 0 0 28 28 6 45.2%
CAR 54 24.1% 0.0% 13 5 13 0 0 4 27 22 5 40.7%
MIN 74 23.0% 2.7% 16 8 17 2 0 1 40 25 8 33.8%
TEN 62 22.6% 0.0% 14 7 14 0 0 4 28 27 7 43.5%
GUMILAKA 77 20.8% 3.9% 16 6 16 1 2 2 32 39 6 50.6%
ATL 65 20.0% 7.7% 13 8 13 2 3 1 27 thirty 8 46.2%
DEN 82 18.3% 1.2% 15 12 15 1 0 2 42 28 12 34.1%
NYJ 57 17.5% 1.8% 10 7 10 1 0 2 32 17 8 29.8%

The Broncos also typically did not run the ball in GtG situations, doing so on only 34.1% of GtG plays. Only the Vikings (33.8%) and Jets (29.8%) ran the ball less often in GtG contests. Compare the Eagles who ran the ball 69.9% of the time when facing GtG play.

The Broncos only attempted a TD on 4th and scored once – in the first quarter against the Patriots (Javonte Williams was stopped short of the goal and they turned the ball over on downs).

Finishing third and scoring, the Broncos had 17 plays, 11 passes and six runs. None of the runs were scored; actually six gears lost seven yards. Five of the passes were made for two tank destroyers and one INT. There was also a third down and a goal scored against Washington.

When you throw so much at GtG, you rely heavily on the OL and QB. The Bronco OL allowed two sacks in GtG games in 2023, which means the Broncos allowed sacks on 4.8% of GtG pass plays. This result is better than the league average of 6.1%. The Giants were the worst, allowing 17.4% of GtG passes (4 of 23). There were many teams that did not allow GtG waivers in 2023, including the Raiders.

The Broncos didn’t give the ball away except once in a GtG game (interception), but many teams had zero turnovers in GtG games. The Cowboys had four, but also led the league in GtG contests with 101 (tied with the Dolphins).

It’s no surprise that the six worst third-and-goal teams in 2023 will have new starting QBs in 2024:

  • New York – Favorite Aaron Rogers
  • ATL – Kirk Cousins
  • DEN – Bo Nix
  • PIT – Russell Wilson or Justin Fields
  • MIN – JJ McCarthy
  • NE – Drake Maye

I expect the Broncos to improve their RZTD% and their GTGTD% in 2024, but I’m not sure how much improvement we’ll see from the rookie QB.

Vote

How much improvement in target TD% do you expect in 2024 compared to 2024?

  • 0%

    none – the Broncos will be at the bottom of the league in 2024

    (0 votes)

  • 0%

    slightly better than in 2023

    (0 votes)

  • 0%

    much better than in 2023

    (0 votes)

  • 0%

    such a big improvement that the Broncos will be near the top of the league

    (0 votes)


Total 0 votes

Vote now

By meerna

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