Tue. Jul 16th, 2024

Most Democrats want Biden to withdraw, Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds

By meerna Jul11,2024
Most Democrats want Biden to withdraw, Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds

A majority of Democrats nationwide believe President Biden should end his reelection campaign because of his performance in the presidential debate two weeks ago, according to a Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos poll.

The poll results contradict Biden’s claims that only party elites want him to step down. He has said that positive interactions with supporters on the campaign trail helped convince him to stay in the race after a debate in which he trailed and at times seemed disoriented. But the poll found that 56 percent of Democrats think he should end his candidacy, while 42 percent think he should continue seeking reelection. Overall, 2 in 3 adults think the president should step down, including more than 7 in 10 independents.

The poll shows Biden and former President Donald Trump tied for the popular vote, with both candidates receiving 46 percent of registered voters. Those numbers are nearly identical to an ABC-Ipsos poll from April.

This finding is contrary to some other recent public polls. In eight other post-debate national polls tracked by The Post, Trump leads by an average of 3.5 percentage points, compared with Trump’s 1-point lead in the same polls before the debate. Biden led Trump by 9 to 11 points in average public polls at this point in the campaign four years ago. He ultimately won by 4.5 points.

The president and his campaign team spent the week trying to win support from key Democratic constituencies, including the Congressional Black Caucus, labor leaders and key progressive lawmakers, but with limited success. As of Wednesday evening, 13 Democrats in the House and Senate had called on Biden to withdraw, though one of them, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), later softened his stance.

Also Wednesday, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) urged Biden to decide whether to drop out of the presidential race, a signal that she and other Democrats do not believe Biden’s statements about staying in power have settled the matter. edition.

The poll shows the extent to which Democrats across the country were concerned about what they saw in the debate. Many Democrats fear that if Biden continues his candidacy, Trump could have an easier path to victory and Republicans could end up with majorities in both the House and Senate, Sen. Michael Bennett (D-Colo.) said during an interview on CNN Tuesday night.

The poll found little change in Biden’s job approval, with 57 percent disapproving him, identical to the percentage in an April ABC-Ipsos poll. Among Democrats, 75 percent approve of Biden’s performance, while 22 percent disapprove, also little changed over the past few months. Americans’ views of Trump and his performance as president Also, compared to the period before the debate, little has changed – 43% of respondents expressed approval and 52% disapproval.

But last month’s debate, which most Americans say they watched or followed on the news, appears to have intensified concerns about Biden’s age and fitness for office. The share of Americans who say Biden is mentally sharper than Trump fell from 23 percent in April to 14 percent this month. The share who say Biden is in better physical health than Trump fell from 20 percent to 13 percent.

Trump hasn’t had much success on these issues; instead, more and more people are saying that neither candidate has the focus or physical health to be president. A majority of Americans say that both Biden and Trump are too old to serve another term as president, up from 53 percent in April to 58 percent now. The share of people who say only Biden is too old is unchanged at 28 percent, as is the 2 percent who say only Trump is too old.

A total of 85 percent think Biden is too old, while 60 percent think Trump is too old. In April, 81 percent thought Biden was too old, while 55 percent thought Trump was too old.

But the new poll shows no change in voter intentions since the debate. In April, registered voters split 46 percent for Biden and 45 percent for Trump, and now they’re both at 46 percent. The strength of each candidate is his party, with 92 percent of Democratic voters saying they would vote for Biden in a two-way race and 93 percent of Republicans saying they would support Trump. Among independents, the two are virtually tied, with Trump at 42 percent and Biden at 40 percent.

When independents are included, the lead between Biden and Trump does not change significantly, with 42 percent supporting Biden and 43 percent Trump. Another 9 percent of registered voters support Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 2 percent Cornel West and 2 percent Jill Stein.

Democrats have yet to reach a consensus on who should replace Biden if he steps down, though Vice President Harris enjoys significantly greater support than other potential candidates.

In response to an open-ended question, 29 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents picked Harris, while 7 percent named California Gov. Gavin Newsom, 4 percent named Michelle Obama and 3 percent each named Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Half did not name a specific person as an alternative to Biden.

In a separate question, 70 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they would be “satisfied” if Harris replaced Biden as the party’s presidential candidate. That figure jumps to 85 percent among black Democrats, but strong majorities of Democrats across demographic groups also said they would be satisfied with Harris.

Harris faces more opposition from the broader electorate, with 53 percent of Americans overall saying they would be dissatisfied with Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee, including 58 percent of political independents. Two-thirds of Black Americans (67 percent) would be happy with Harris replacing Biden, compared with 51 percent of Hispanic Americans and 38 percent of white Americans.

But in a separate voter test, the poll showed Harris receiving 49 percent and Trump 47 percent among registered voters. But that two-point difference isn’t statistically significant. There’s also no big difference between Harris and Biden’s coalition, with nearly all demographic groups statistically equal for both Biden and Harris. One exception is voters who “somewhat disapprove” of Biden’s performance: 60 percent support Harris against Trump, compared with 50 percent who support Biden.

The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll reveals a sharp racial divide within Biden’s party over his candidacy, with 63 percent of black Democrats saying Biden should continue, while 59 percent of Latino Democrats and 64 percent of white Democrats say Biden should step down because of his debate performance. Democrats over the age of 50 are roughly divided on whether Biden should continue, while 6 in 10 younger Democrats say he should step down.

There is no ideological divide among Democrats on whether Biden should drop out of the race or remain the candidate. Fifty-five percent of liberal Democrats want Biden to drop out of the race, while 57 percent of moderate and conservative Democrats share the same view.

At a rousing campaign rally the day after the debate, Biden said, “I may not walk as easily or speak as fluently as I used to,” but “I know how to tell the truth.” He criticized Trump for lying and making false statements during the debate.

Perceptions of honesty stand out as a clear advantage for Biden over Trump, with 39 percent of Americans saying Biden is more honest and trustworthy than Trump. Twenty-two percent say Trump is more honest and trustworthy than Biden, while 39 percent say neither is honest.

The Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds Biden has a narrower lead over Trump on the questions of which candidate “represents personal values” and whether he “will protect American democracy.”

But Americans were nearly evenly split on which candidate “understands the problems of people like you,” with 34 percent saying Biden is more empathetic, 32 percent saying Trump is and 34 percent saying neither is. Four years ago, a Post-ABC telephone poll found Biden with a 17-point lead on a similar question.

The CNN poll found that the debate in Atlanta was a political disaster for Biden but not a triumph for Trump. Just 7 percent of Americans believe Biden won the debate, while 46 percent believe Trump won and 45 percent believe neither side won or that it was a tie. Half of Americans believe the debate made them feel “less positively” about Biden, while less than a quarter feel that way about Trump.

Half of all adults (50 percent) say that, based on his debate performance, Trump should concede, while 47 percent think he should stay in the race. But the key difference between Biden and Trump is that nearly 9 in 10 Republicans still favor Trump continuing to campaign, and a much larger majority of independents say Biden should leave than say the same about the former president.

The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll was conducted July 5-9 among 2,431 U.S. adults through Ipsos KnowledgePanel, a survey panel recruited through a random sample of households across the country. The overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus two percentage points; the margin of error is 3.5 points among the sample of 825 people identifying as Democrats and three points among the sample of 1,255 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

By meerna

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