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Fri. Jul 19th, 2024

NBA Finals 2024: Dallas Mavericks – Boston Celtics match Top 5 bets

By meerna Jun18,2024
NBA Finals 2024: Dallas Mavericks – Boston Celtics match Top 5 bets

Just put us out of our misery. This terrible NBA season continues thanks Dallas Mavericks smashing Boston Celtics 122-84 in Friday’s Game 4. We return to Boston on Monday for Game 5 of these garbage 2024 NBA Finals to see if the Celtics can end this series.

If it sounds like I’m being salty, well, I am. Not only did I go 1-3 on my “best bets” for Game 4 of the NBA Finals, but I also got together with other NBA fan friends to watch this nonsense. Granted, Game 4 was over before halftime, so I called it an early night. However, the entire NBA season was a disaster from both an entertainment and betting standpoint.

Bet coupon for the fifth NBA game: Dallas Mavericks – Boston Celtics

  • 1.1 units (u) included Boston -6.5 (-110) at BetMGM.
  • 0.33u enabled Celtics PG Jrue Holiday OVER 13.5 points (-111) on FanDuel.
  • 0.31u enabled Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving UNDER 23.5 POINTS (-102) on DraftKings.
  • 0.3u enabled Boston SF Jayson Tatum UNDER 5.5 assists (+115) at BetMGM.

Celtics -6.5 over Mavericks

Through the first three games of the 2024 NBA Finals, the Celtics are averaging 8.5 more three-pointers made per game. “Wide open” is when the three-point shooter is at least six feet from the nearest defender. And as we all know, three-point shooting is the most important aspect of the NBA right now.

More importantly, Boston’s entire starting five, regardless of whether Al Horford or injured Kristaps Porzingis starts from the center, can shoot threes. Even if only Luka Dončić AND Kyrie Irving are good three-point shooters for Dallas. Neither Luka nor Kyrie are good defenders, while the Celtics have four elite two-way players in their starting five.

Game 4 was just “Celtics being Celtics.” Twice in these playoffs we saw them “play with their food.” Boston recovered from its first playoff losses by scoring 20 and 13 points. These two defeats meant a second home game. So the Celtics went out and crushed their opponents in the next game.

These teams share “four factors” in this series, with the Mavericks winning the rebounding and turnover battles. Ultimately, these are mostly “effort stats” and I’m hoping for better saves from Boston in Game 5. If the Celtics do a better job of fighting for possession, they will win by double digits on Monday.

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Boston Celtics PG Jrue Holiday OVER 13.5 points

Even though Holiday is one of the best two-way players in the NBA, he still plays an important role in Boston’s offense, and role players perform better on their home court. Holiday’s field goals, 3-pointers and free throws, as well as his offensive efficiency, improved on his home court compared to his away games during the regular season.

What’s more, Holiday’s home run stats are staggering. He is shooting 50.3% from the field in Boston, 46.0% from beyond the arc and 86.2% from the charity stripe. In the playoffs, Jrue is shooting 50.3% from the field, 40.5% from deep and 95.5% from the foul line.

Finally, FanDuel reserves a lower number for the Over on Holiday scoring prop than Pinnacle Sportsbook (-119). Pinnacle is an odds creation company whose odds are typically imitated by legal bookmakers in the US. Ultimately, FanDuel will move its end-of-summer odds closer to Pinnacles. Until then, “we make the best of it.”

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Dallas Mavericks SG Kyrie Irving UNDER 23.5 POINTS

Kai has achieved that mark in just seven of 21 postseason games, including once in the 2024 NBA Finals. Irving also scored less than 24 points in both games against the Celtics during the regular season. Since 2020, Kyrie has scored 20 or fewer points in seven of his 10 visits to Boston.

Aside from their best players, the Celtics have no weak ball-handling defenders for Irving to exploit. Holiday and Boston SG Derrick White create the best defense in the NBA. Tatum and Brown are monsters defensively. In Game 2, Luka and Kyrie went a combined 4-for-14 against the C Celtics Al Horford keeping an eye on them.

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Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum UNDER 5.5 assists

Tatum is averaging 6.3 assists per game in the 2024 NBA Finals. However, when betting on player props, it is better to look at the average rather than the average. He dished out over 6 assists in just three of the four games of this series, but dished out 12 assists in the second game. Tatum had more than six assists in 28 of his 74 regular-season games and eight of 18 in the playoffs.

Additionally, the Celtics are unselfish and often receive “hockey assists” by swinging the ball. Even if Tatum’s nice pass leads to a basket, the assist may not count. This is an “elimination game” so the pace may slow down. Less possession means fewer points and assist opportunities. Finally, I won’t lie that the upside payout is tempting.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my podcast OutKick Bets for more betting content and random rants. I will be adding bets to my 2023-24 NBA betting record via X throughout the season.

By meerna

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